There is no more controversial topic in sports than deciding who is #1 in college football. NCAA Division FBS football is unique among college sports because before 1998, it had no playoff system to determine its national champion. Sports writers and college football coaches have had their own polls for many years, but these have often disagreed. The various post-season bowls, locked as they have been to specific conference tie-ins, frequently did not result in match-ups that produced a clear national champion. There were (and are) a variety of mathematical rating systems that lacked consensus in their results.
In 1998, Commissioner Roy Kramer of the SEC and the heads of the other major then-Division I-A conferences designed a system to select two teams that would be invited to play for the national championship, and the Bowl Championship Series was created. In its sixteen years of existence, it produced fifteen undisputed national champions - a much better record than anything that preceded it.
The BCS calculated for each contender a simple average of three terms: 1) the team's position in the Harris Interactive College Football Poll; 2) the team's position in the USA Today-AFCA Coaches' Poll; and 3) the team's average position in a set of six computer ratings. The two top-rated teams at the end of the regular season played for the national championship.
The 2014 season saw a four-team playoff seeded by a committee of "experts" such as Condoleezza Rice, Secretary of State in the second Bush administration. Whether this results in an improvement over the prior system remains to be seen. In the past ten years, these ratings chose the same playoff participants as the seeding committee "experts" in 34 out of the 40 slots. In 2017, the omission of Central Florida from the playoff tells you all you need to know about the seeding committee.
A lot has been written on how to rate football teams. This is not surprising, because a good rating system has applications far beyond sports. (A uesful bibliography is kept by David Wilson here.)
Sports like college football with short seasons and many teams are much harder to rate than sports with many games and few teams, like baseball for example. If teams in a league play a balanced schedule, then winning percentage is all you need to rank the teams. College football schedules are far from balanced, though. About 700 college football teams can be linked by schedules, but because each team plays only about eleven games, there is no direct way to compare each team with the vast majority of all the other teams. Using winning percentage as the benchmark for comparison doesn't work. (Was 2001 division III champion Mount Union at 14-0 as good as 2001 division FBS champion Miami FL, 13-0? Each had a perfect winning percentage.)
A significant but hard-to-measure factor in comparing teams is sportsmanship. Running up the score is generally looked on as evidence of bad sportsmanship, behavior which should not be encouraged or rewarded. But by the same token, ratings which used scores are generally better at predicting the results of future games than pure win/loss systems.
With this in mind, the BCS chose to use computer systems that use only won/loss data (and not scoring margin) to compute ratings. We have developed such a system that provides reasonable results. We rate all varsity teams of four year colleges that can be connected by mutual opponents, taking note of game locations. Games played against club teams, junior varsity teams, or junior or community college teams aren't counted.
The method we use is called a maximum likelihood estimate. In it, each team i is assigned a rating value πi that is used in predicting the expected result between it and its opponent j, with the likelihood of i beating j given by:
πi / (πi + πj)
The probability P of all the results happening as they actually did is simply the product of multiplying together all the individual probabilities derived from each game. The rating values are chosen in such a way that the number P is as large as possible. This is often called a Bradley-Terry model, and is described in papers listed at David Wilson's site (see Bradley and Terry 1952, Ford 1957, Elo 1986, Keener 1993).
Here are the pre- and post-bowl results from 1992 through 2022 (except the COVID year 2020); the post-season position of the winners of the lower division playoffs are listed as well:
1992 Pre-bowl Final ------------------------------------------------------ 1 Miami FL 11-0-0 1 Alabama 13-0-0 2 Alabama 12-0-0 2 Miami FL 11-1-0 3 Florida St 10-1-0 3 Florida St 11-1-0 4 Texas A&M 12-0-0 4 Notre Dame 10-1-1 5 Notre Dame 9-1-1 5 Texas A&M 12-1-0 1992 Lower Division Champions ------------------------------------------------------ 82 Marshall 12-3-0 FCS Champion 116 Jacksonville St 12-1-1 II Champion 169 Central St (OH) 12-1-0 NAIA Champion 173 UW-La Crosse 12-0-1 III Champion 186 Findlay 12-1-0 NAIA-II Champion 1993 Pre-bowl* Final* ------------------------------------------------------ 1 West Virginia 11-0-0 1 Florida St 12-1-0 2 Nebraska 11-0-0 2 Auburn* 11-0-0 3 Florida St 11-1-0 3 Notre Dame 11-1-0 4 Auburn* 11-0-0 4 West Virginia 11-1-0 5 Notre Dame 10-1-0 5 Florida 11-2-0 * Auburn was ineligible for post-season play 1993 Lower Division Champions ------------------------------------------------------ 76 Youngstown St 13-2-0 FCS Champion 90 North Alabama 14-0-0 II Champion 130 Mount Union 14-0-0 III Champion 179 Pacific Lutheran 12-0-1 NAIA-II Champion 310 East Central (OK) 10-3-0 NAIA Champion 1994 Pre-bowl Final ------------------------------------------------------ 1 Nebraska 12-0-0 1 Nebraska 13-0-0 2 Penn State 11-0-0 2 Penn State 12-0-0 3 Colorado 10-1-0 3 Colorado 11-1-0 4 Florida St 9-1-1 4 Florida St 10-1-1 5 Florida 10-1-0 5 Alabama 12-1-0 1994 Lower Division Champions ------------------------------------------------------ 44 Youngstown St 14-0-1 FCS Champion 87 North Alabama 13-1-0 II Champion 144 Albion 13-0-0 III Champion 234 Westminster (PA) 12-2-0 NAIA-II Champion 240 NE Oklahoma St 11-2-0 NAIA Champion 1995 Pre-bowl Final ------------------------------------------------------ 1 Nebraska 11-0-0 1 Nebraska 12-0-0 2 Florida 12-0-0 2 Florida 12-1-0 3 Northwestern 10-1-0 3 Tennessee 11-1-0 4 Ohio St 11-1-0 4 Colorado 10-2-0 5 Tennessee 10-1-0 5 Ohio St 11-2-0 1995 Lower Division Champions ------------------------------------------------------ 91 Montana 13-2-0 FCS Champion 105 North Alabama 14-0-0 II Champion 116 UW-La Crosse 14-0-0 III Champion 170 Central St (OH) 10-1-0 NAIA Champion 312 Findlay 10-1-2 NAIA-II Co-Champion 321 Central Washington 10-3-1 NAIA-II Co-Champion 1996 Pre-bowl Final ------------------------------------------------------ 1 Florida St 11-0 1 Florida 12-1 2 Arizona St 11-0 2 Florida St 11-1 3 Florida 11-1 3 Ohio State 11-1 4 Ohio State 10-1 4 Arizona St 11-1 5 Nebraska 10-2 5 Nebraska 11-2 1996 Lower Division Champions ------------------------------------------------------ 66 Marshall 15-0 FCS Champion 148 Mount Union 14-0 III Champion 150 Sioux Falls 14-0 NAIA-II Champion 153 Northern Colorado 12-3 II Champion 298 SW Oklahoma St 9-3 NAIA Champion 1997 Pre-bowl Final ------------------------------------------------------ 1 Michigan 11-0 1 Nebraska 13-0 2 Nebraska 12-0 2 Michigan 12-0 3 Tennessee 11-1 3 Tennessee 11-2 4 Florida St 10-1 4 Florida St 11-1 5 Florida 9-2 5 Florida 10-2 1997 Lower Division Champions ------------------------------------------------------ 92 Youngstown St 13-2 FCS Champion 135 Mount Union 14-0 III Champion 138 Northern Colorado 13-2 II Champion 159 Findlay 14-0 NAIA Champion 1998 Pre-bowl Final ------------------------------------------------------ 1 Tennessee 12-0 1 Tennessee 13-0 2 Florida St 11-1 2 Florida St 11-2 3 UCLA 10-1 3 Ohio State 11-1 4 Texas A&M 10-2 4 Wisconsin 11-1 5 Kansas St 11-1 5 Florida 10-2 1998 Lower Division Champions ------------------------------------------------------ 91 Massachusetts 12-3 FCS Champion 115 NW Missouri St 15-0 II Champion 123 Mount Union 14-0 III Champion 200 Azusa Pacific 12-2 NAIA Champion 1999 Pre-bowl Final ------------------------------------------------------ 1 Florida St 11-0 1 Florida St 12-0 2 Virginia Tech 11-0 2 Nebraska 12-1 3 Nebraska 11-1 3 Virginia Tech 11-1 4 Alabama 10-2 4 Michigan 10-2 5 Michigan St 9-2 5 Michigan St 10-2 1999 Lower Division Champions ------------------------------------------------------ 91 Georgia Southern 13-2 FCS Champion 141 NW Missouri St 14-1 II Champion 182 Pacific Lutheran 13-1 III Champion 191 NW Oklahoma St 13-0 NAIA Champion 2000 Pre-bowl Final ------------------------------------------------------ 1 Oklahoma 12-0 1 Oklahoma 13-0 2 Washington 10-1 2 Miami FL 11-1 3 Florida St 11-1 3 Washington 11-1 4 Miami FL 10-1 4 Oregon State 11-1 5 Oregon State 10-1 5 Florida St 11-2 2000 Lower Division Champions ------------------------------------------------------ 64 Georgia Southern 13-2 FCS Champion 122 Delta State 14-1 II Champion 129 Mount Union 14-0 III Champion 171 Georgetown KY 14-0 NAIA Champion 2001 Pre-bowl Final ------------------------------------------------------ 1 Miami FL 11-0 1 Miami FL 12-0 2 Nebraska 11�1 2 Tennessee 11-2 3 Oregon 10-1 3 Oregon 11-1 4 Colorado 10-2 4 Florida 10-2 5 Tennessee 10-2 5 Nebraska 11-2 2001 Lower Division Champions ------------------------------------------------------ 74 Montana 15-1 FCS Champion 112 North Dakota 14-1 II Champion 151 Mount Union 14-0 III Champion 188 Georgetown KY 14-0 NAIA Champion 2002 Pre-bowl Final ------------------------------------------------------ 1 Ohio St 13-0 1 Ohio St 14-0 2 Miami FL 12-0 2 Miami FL 12-1 3 Georgia 12-1 3 Georgia 13-1 4 Southern Cal 10-2 4 Southern Cal 11-2 5 Oklahoma 11-2 5 Oklahoma 12-2 2002 Lower Division Champions ------------------------------------------------------ 86 Western Kentucky 12-3 FCS Champion 110 Grand Valley St 14-0 II Champion 158 Mount Union 14-0 III Champion 225 Carroll MT 12-2 NAIA Champion 2003 Pre-bowl Final ------------------------------------------------------ 1 Oklahoma 12-1 1 LSU 13-1 2 LSU 12-1 2 Southern Cal 12-1 3 Southern Cal 11-1 3 Miami OH 13-1 4 Miami OH 12-1 4 Georgia 11-3 5 Michigan 10-2 5 Oklahoma 12-2 2003 Lower Division Champions ------------------------------------------------------ 69 Delaware 15-1 FCS Champion 100 Grand Valley St 14-1 II Champion 150 St John's MN 14-0 III Champion 177 Carroll MT 14-0 NAIA Champion 2004 Pre-bowl Final ------------------------------------------------------ 1 Oklahoma 12-0 1 Southern Cal 13-0 2 Southern Cal 12-0 2 Auburn 13-0 3 Auburn 12-0 3 Oklahoma 12-1 4 Texas 10-1 4 Texas 11-1 5 Utah 11-0 5 Utah 12-0 2004 Lower Division Champions ------------------------------------------------------ 62 James Madison 13-2 FCS Champion 106 Valdosta St 13-1 II Champion 163 Linfield 13-0 III Champion 247 Carroll MT 12-2 NAIA Champion 2005 Pre-bowl Final ------------------------------------------------------ 1 Texas 12-0 1 Texas 13-0 2 Southern Cal 12-0 2 Southern Cal 12-1 3 Penn State 10-1 3 Penn State 11-1 4 Ohio State 9-2 4 Ohio State 10-2 5 Oregon 10-1 5 Virginia Tech 11-2 2005 Lower Division Champions ------------------------------------------------------ 104 Appalachian St 12-3 FCS Champion 109 Grand Valley St 13-0 II Champion 184 Mount Union 14-1 III Champion 185 Carroll MT 14-0 NAIA Champion 2006 Pre-bowl Final ------------------------------------------------------ 1 Ohio State 12-0 1 Florida 13-1 2 Michigan 11-1 2 Ohio St 12-1 3 Florida 12-1 3 Michigan 11-2 4 Southern Cal 10-2 4 Louisville 12-1 5 LSU 10-2 5 LSU 11-2 2006 Lower Division Champions ------------------------------------------------------ 66 Appalachian St 14-1 FCS Champion 91 Grand Valley St 15-0 II Champion 126 Mount Union 15-0 III Champion 185 Sioux Falls 14-0 NAIA Champion 2007 Pre-bowl Final ------------------------------------------------------ 1 Virginia Tech 11-2 1 LSU 12-2 2 Oklahoma 11-2 2 Kansas 12-1 3 LSU 11-2 3 Georgia 11-2 4 Missouri 11-2 4 West Virginia 11-2 5 Ohio State 11-1 5 Missouri 12-2 2007 Lower Division Champions ------------------------------------------------------ 69 Appalachian St 13-2 FCS Champion 115 Valdosta St 13-1 II Champion 184 UW-Whitewater 14-1 III Champion 197 Carroll MT 15-0 NAIA Champion 2008 Pre-bowl Final ------------------------------------------------------ 1 Oklahoma 12-1 1 Utah 13-0 2 Texas 11-1 2 Florida 13-1 3 Texas Tech 11-1 3 Texas 12-1 4 Florida 12-1 4 Southern Cal 12-1 5 Utah 12-0 5 Oklahoma 12-2 2008 Lower Division Champions ------------------------------------------------------ 112 Richmond 13-3 FCS Champion 140 Minnesota-Duluth 15-0 II Champion 205 Mount Union 15-0 III Champion 237 Sioux Falls 14-0 NAIA Champion 2009 Pre-bowl Final ------------------------------------------------------ 1 Alabama 13-0 1 Alabama 14-0 2 Cincinnati 12-0 2 Florida 13-1 3 Texas 13-0 3 Boise St 14-0 4 Florida 12-1 4 Texas 13-1 5 TCU 12-0 5 TCU 12-1 2009 Lower Division Champions ------------------------------------------------------ 60 Villanova 14-1 FCS Champion 126 NW Missouri St 14-1 II Champion 141 UW-Whitewater 15-0 III Champion 153 Sioux Falls 15-0 NAIA Champion 2010 Pre-bowl Final ------------------------------------------------------ 1 Auburn 13-0 1 Auburn 14-0 2 Oregon 12-0 2 TCU 13-0 3 TCU 12-0 3 Oregon 12-1 4 Arkansas 10-2 4 Stanford 12-1 5 Stanford 11-1 5 Ohio State 12-1 2010 Lower Division Champions ------------------------------------------------------ 81 Eastern Washington 13-2 FCS Champion 107 Minnesota-Duluth 15-0 II Champion 147 UW-Whitewater 15-0 III Champion 222 Carroll MT 14-0 NAIA Champion 2011 Pre-bowl Final ------------------------------------------------------ 1 LSU 13-0 1 Alabama 12-1 2 Alabama 11-1 2 LSU 13-1 3 Oklahoma St 11-1 3 Oklahoma St 11-1 4 Arkansas 10-2 4 Arkansas 11-2 5 Kansas St 10-2 5 Oregon 12-2 2011 Lower Division Champions ------------------------------------------------------ 72 North Dakota St 14-1 FCS Champion 181 Pittsburg St 13-1 II Champion 200 UW-Whitewater 15-0 III Champion 219 St Xavier 14-1 NAIA Champion 2012 Pre-bowl Final ------------------------------------------------------ 1 Notre Dame 12-0 1 Alabama 13-1 2 Florida 11-1 2 Ohio State 12-0 3 Alabama 12-1 3 Notre Dame 12-1 4 Ohio State 12-0 4 Oregon 12-1 5 Stanford 11-2 5 South Carolina 11-2 2012 Lower Division Champions ------------------------------------------------------ 75 North Dakota St 14-1 FCS Champion 218 Valdosta St 12-2 II Champion 253 Mount Union 15-0 III Champion 306 Marian IN 12-1 NAIA Champion 2013 Pre-bowl Final ------------------------------------------------------ 1 Florida St 13-0 1 Florida St 14-0 2 Auburn 12-1 2 Auburn 12-2 3 Alabama 11-1 3 Michigan St 13-1 4 Michigan St 12-1 4 South Carolina 11-2 5 Stanford 11-2 5 Missouri 12-2 2013 Lower Division Champions ------------------------------------------------------ 28 North Dakota St 15-0 FCS Champion 100 NW Missouri St 15-0 II Champion 154 UW-Whitewater 15-0 III Champion 184 Grand View 14-0 NAIA Champion 2014 Pre-bowl Final ------------------------------------------------------ 1 Florida St 13-0 1 Ohio St 14-1 2 Alabama 12-1 2 Oregon 13-2 3 Oregon 12-1 3 Florida St 13-1 4 Ohio State 12-1 4 Alabama 12-2 5 TCU 11-1 5 Michigan St 11-2 2014 Lower Division Champions ------------------------------------------------------ 77 North Dakota St 15-1 FCS Champion 162 NW Missouri St 14-1 II Champion 242 UW-Whitewater 15-0 III Champion 275 Southern Oregon 13-2 NAIA Champion 2015 Pre-bowl Final ------------------------------------------------------ 1 Clemson 13-0 1 Alabama 14-1 2 Michigan St 12-1 2 Clemson 14-1 3 Alabama 12-1 3 Ohio State 12-1 4 Iowa 12-1 4 Michigan St 12-2 5 Oklahoma 11-1 5 Stanford 12-2 2015 Lower Division Champions ------------------------------------------------------ 96 North Dakota St 13-2 FCS Champion 165 NW Missouri St 15-0 II Champion 246 Mount Union 15-0 III Champion 285 Marian IN 12-2 NAIA Champion 2016 Pre-bowl Final ------------------------------------------------------ 1 Alabama 13-0 1 Clemson 14-1 2 Ohio State 11-1 2 Alabama 14-1 3 Washington 12-1 3 Ohio State 11-2 4 Clemson 12-1 4 Washington 12-2 5 Penn State 11-2 5 Florida St 12-2 2016 Lower Division Champions ------------------------------------------------------ 96 James Madison 14-1 FCS Champion 126 NW Missouri St 15-0 II Champion 300 Mary Hardin-Baylor 15-0 III Champion 317 St Francis IN 13-1 NAIA Champion 2017 Pre-bowl Final ------------------------------------------------------ 1 Central Florida 12-0 1 Alabama 13-1 2 Georgia 13-1 2 Central Florida 13-0 3 Clemson 12-1 3 Georgia 13-2 4 Oklahoma 12-1 4 Ohio State 12-2 5 Ohio State 11-2 5 Wisconsin 13-1 2017 Lower Division Champions ------------------------------------------------------ 65 North Dakota St 14-1 FCS Champion 158 TAMU-Commerce 14-1 II Champion 183 Mount Union 15-0 III Champion 246 St Francis IN 14-0 NAIA Champion 2018 Pre-bowl Final ------------------------------------------------------ 1 Alabama 14-0 1 Clemson 15-0 2 Clemson 14-0 2 Alabama 14-1 3 Notre Dame 12-0 3 Notre Dame 12-1 4 Georgia 11-2 4 Ohio State 13-1 5 Ohio State 12-1 5 Oklahoma 12-2 2018 Lower Division Champions ------------------------------------------------------ 78 North Dakota St 15-0 FCS Champion 175 Valdosta St 14-0 II Champion 253 Morningside 15-0 NAIA Champion 286 Mary Hardin-Baylor 14-0 III Champion 2019 Pre-bowl Final ------------------------------------------------------ 1 LSU 13-0 1 LSU 15-0 2 Ohio State 13-0 2 Clemson 14-1 3 Clemson 13-0 3 Ohio State 13-1 4 Oklahoma 12-1 4 Georgia 12-2 5 Memphis 12-1 5 Penn State 11-2 2019 Lower Division Champions ------------------------------------------------------ 97 North Dakota St 16-0 FCS Champion 144 West Florida 13-2 II Champion 259 Morningside 14-0 NAIA Champion 298 North Central 14-1 III Champion (no ratings for 2020) 2021 Pre-bowl Final ------------------------------------------------------ 1 Cincinnati 13-0 1 Georgia 14-1 2 Alabama 12-1 2 Alabama 13-2 3 Michigan 12-1 3 Baylor 12-2 4 Georgia 12-1 4 Oklahoma St 12-2 5 Notre Dame 11-1 5 Cincinnati 13-1 2021 Lower Division Champions ------------------------------------------------------ 73 North Dakota St 14-1 FCS Champion 140 Ferris St 14-0 II Champion 214 Mary Hardin-Baylor 15-0 III Champion 246 Morningside 14-0 NAIA Champion 2022 Pre-bowl Final ------------------------------------------------------ 1 Georgia 13-0 1 Georgia 15-0 2 Michigan 13-0 2 Tennessee 11-2 3 Ohio State 11-1 3 Michigan 13-1 4 Tennessee 10-2 4 Ohio State 11-2 5 TCU 12-1 5 Alabama 11-2 2022 Lower Division Champions ------------------------------------------------------ 60 South Dakota St 14-1 FCS Champion 163 Ferris St 14-1 II Champion 279 North Central 15-0 III Champion 317 Northwestern IA 13-1 NAIA Champion 2023 Pre-bowl Final ------------------------------------------------------ 1 Washington 13-0 1 Michigan 15-0 2 Michigan 13-0 2 Washington 14-1 3 Florida St 13-0 3 Alabama 12-2 4 Alabama 12-1 4 Georgia 13-1 5 Texas 12-1 5 Mississippi 11-2 2023 Lower Division Champions ------------------------------------------------------ 75 South Dakota St 15-0 FCS Champion 127 Harding 15-0 II Champion 270 Cortland St 14-1 III Champion 288 Keiser 12-2 NAIA Champion
I would not have been able to put this site together without help and encouragement from a lot of people! I would particularly like to thank Ross Baker, Gib Bassett, Les Ford Jr., David Harville, Mark Hopkins, Jim Keener, Roy Kramer, Jeff Leake, Kenneth Massey, the late Herman Matthews, the late Dave Rothman, David Wilson, Rick Wilson, and especially Jeff Sagarin for many helpful suggestions.
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